Some models have suggested that at least some spotty light rain will make a run at our area by later Sunday as a warm front approaches from broad low pressure entering the Mississippi River Valley. That warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend as an upper-ridge builds closer to the East Coast from the Midwest. High temps outside of the shore and the Poconos should reach the 60s, so within 5 to 10 degrees of normal highs for early May. Portions of our area may escape with only sprinkles or even a dry day, and there could be a few more extended breaks of sunshine, with temperatures finally beginning to modify. Expect that the showers will be weaker with reduced coverage compared to Wednesday and Thursday, as drier and more stable air gradually builds in with surface high pressure ridging southward from Ontario and Quebec. However, an inverted upper-trough extending back west-northwestward from the offshore low across New England and New York will keep enough cold air aloft and vorticity advection to trigger more pop-up shower activity during the daytime on Friday across our region. Modeling agrees that the upper-level low plaguing our weather with unseasonably cool and showery conditions will finally exit stage right by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s with upper 30s across the higher elevations. Showers diminish Thursday night with some clouds breaking south and west. Winds will mostly be Northwest or North at 10 to 15 mph by afternoon. To the south, some locations will reach 60 with fewer clouds and less rain-cooled air. Highs Thu will be in the mid to upper 50s across the north where the best chances for clouds and showers are with some low 50s NW. Best chance of precip will be across northern NJ and eastern PA. Some scattered showers will still develop by early afternoon and move across the area. We will be on the drier part of the system with a north to northwest flow developing over the area. The upper low passes offshore Thursday morning. As low pressure organizes in the Plains early next week, a warm front may then lift into our area Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure builds into our region for the weekend, with fair and milder weather.
The pesky upper-level low across the Northeast will gradually weaken and shift offshore tonight into Thursday, then move farther away Friday. Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪrea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 653 AM EDT Thu May 4 2023
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